The MotoGP season opener provides the first indication of the new season, but how often does the race winner go on to become world champion? A look at the last 15 years
After the winter break and the first test drives, the MotoGP season opener is an eagerly awaited event every year, which often provides the first indications of the balance of power for the new season. But a victory in the first race does not mean that a driver will also become world champion in the end.
In the last 15 years, various riders have entered the list of winners of the season opener – but only in a few cases was the opening winner also crowned champion.
From 2010 to 2024, there were a total of eight different opening winners in the premier class. It started with a victory for Valentino Rossi in 2010, before Casey Stoner won the first races of the season in 2011 and 2012.
Jorge Lorenzo triumphed at the opening round in 2013, followed by Marc Marquez in 2014. Rossi secured the first victory of the season in 2015, before Lorenzo took his second opening win in 2016. After that, Maverick Vinales took over this role in 2017, while Andrea Dovizioso won the first race in 2018 and 2019 two years in a row.
In 2020, Fabio Quartararo celebrated his first MotoGP victory right at the start of the season, while in 2021, Vinales once again started the season with a victory.
The following year, Enea Bastianini came out on top, before Francesco Bagnaia won the opening race in 2023. In 2024, he won the first race again. In doing so, Bagnaia became the first rider since Marquez in 2014 to win both the opening race and the world title in the 2023 season.
Because statistics show that winning the season opener is not always a reliable indicator of who will become world champion. In the last 15 years, only four riders have managed to win both the first race and the title: Casey Stoner in 2011, Jorge Lorenzo in 2012, Marc Marquez in 2014 and now Francesco Bagnaia in 2023.
Marquez and Joan Mir in particular showed in their title years that it is not a perfect start that matters, but consistency over the entire season to win the World Cup.
