That’s exactly right. Sweden is on top of Group F, while Germany is dead last. If it lasts, depends on the outcome of their 8pm clash in Sochi.
Kick me while I’m down. That’s what Sweden needs to and will try to do to Germany. You can twist and turn it as much as you’d like to, but the fact remains – Germany choked. All the hoo-ha in the days leading up to the game wasn’t fake. Joachim Low’s team didn’t look prepared. The machine that usually has all its nuts and bolts screwed in tightly was shaking. Timo Werner as a center forward didn’t work. Thomas Muller as a winger didn’t work. Mesut Ozil proved once again that he doesn’t deserve a place in the starting lineup. Bayern Munich’s center back duo of Jerome Boateng and Mats Hummels made mistakes and didn’t look as confident as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing them. Marvin Plattenhardt was nearly invisible. Germany’s entire left side was invisible. The question is whether Low makes adjustments or stubbornly holds on to his conviction.
“From now on, we only have finals.”
Those were captain Manuel Neuer’s words following the defeat. That might not be totally true, but that’s the mentality Die Mannschaft must now have if they are to progress. Their next opponent is Sweden; a team they know really well from their fascinating matches back in 2012/13 during the 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign. Germany did not lose a single game, but played two in which the defense conceded three or more goals, both of them against Sweden. The first one in Berlin ended 4-4, while the second one in Stockholm finished 3-5.
These two national teams have faced each other in big competitions several times throughout history.
– World Cup 2006 Round of 16, Germany won 2-0
– Euro 1992 Semi-finals (Sweden was the host), Germany won 3-2
– World Cup 1974 Second Stage, Germany won 4-2
– World Cup 1958 Semi-finals (Sweden was the host), Sweden won 3-1
– World Cup 1934 Quarter-finals, Germany won 2-1
In general, a single one of their encounters has ended with less than two goals scored (a 0-0 draw back in 2011).
That might change this year, as Janne Andersson’s team is specifically designed to play defense. The manner in which the Swedes defeated South Korea is exactly the way they reached the 2018 World Cup. The priority is not to lose. Winning is desirable, but optional. Nevertheless, they enter this matchup with Germany holding a three-point advantage, which puts them in a comfortable position. They are not the ones chasing a result, so they can afford to play their game. Ola Toivonen and Marcus Berg was Andersson’s forward pairing versus South Korea. Even though Berg was ineffective, he was also the more active one of the two. John Guidetti might have been a better option then, but for this match, I expect Andersson to deduct one forward and add a midfielder.
On the other side, Joachim Low has some tough decisions to make. The tactic that didn’t work against Mexico could work versus Sweden. Risk and let it be, or tweak it? I say tweak it. Either play Thomas Muller up the middle as a roaming shadow striker or don’t play him at all. Either play Timo Werner at his natural wing position or don’t play him at all. For me, Werner is the odd man out and should be replaced by Mario Gomez. Ozil should also be out of the starting lineup, while Marco Reus should be inserted in. Leon Goretzka for Sami Khedira is another change Low should consider. One thing I can guarantee is that the German coach will be glad to have Jonas Hector back.
Despite the loss to Mexico, I don’t think anyone believes Germany can drop out of the competition before the knockout round. Can they? Really? We’re about to find out.
Betting Odds
Germany 1.40
Draw 5
Sweden 9
