Uruguay or Portugal round of 16 World Cup 2018
Portugal missed a chance to finish atop Group B and avoid Uruguay, although that had more to do with the referee than the Portuguese themselves. Now, Fernando Santos’ men have to face a team which has proven to be one of the most difficult to eliminate in recent World Cups. Their matchup takes place at 20:00 on Saturday in Sochi.
Uruguay: Group A winner (9 points, 5:0 goal difference)
Is Uruguay’s perfect record real or a fluke? After all, they did play Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia, three opponents nowhere near the level of, let’s say, Portugal. Salah-less Egypt was a struggle (89th minute Jose Maria Gimenez’s game-winning header), Saudi Arabia was a struggle and things went right against Russia. The Uruguayans have a great defense, two world-class strikers and an excellent reputation, but other than that, they haven’t given us any evidence they’re about to go on a long World Cup run.
Atletico Madrid certainly has an effect on how this team plays. Diego Godin is the captain. All these years under Simeone have helped him master his trade to the point where he and Tabarez have translated his club’s defensive scheme to the national level. Gimenez is Godin’s partner in crime for club and country, which is an added bonus. Overall, Uruguay is a relatively predictable opponent. They rely on defensive organization and counter attacks, where their star strikers are expected to make a difference.
Portugal: Group B runner-up (5 points, 5:4 goal difference)
Four of those five goals were scored by Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo is not only Portugal’s captain. He’s their everything. Just as Uruguay’s game relies on Cavani and Suarez providing the goals, the same way Portugal’s game depends on Ronaldo’s. There’s another similarity between these two squads. The Portuguese are predictable as well. They thrive when their adversary dictates the tempo while they sit back and hunt the moment. The game against Iran proved they can control possession, but they’re not nearly as effective when asked to do that.
Santos’ defence is set, as is William Carvalho’s place in the starting lineup. The remaining slots are filled based on matchups. Joao Moutinho should be considered a lock to face Uruguay. Based on what we saw lately, Joao Mario and Ricardo Quaresma are the most likely wingers. Goncalo Guedes and Andre Silva are hard-workers, but neither of them has done anything offensively yet. Silva has a better connection with Ronaldo and Quaresma than Guedes, so he could be given the advantage on Saturday night.
Prediction
Uruguay vs. Portugal is a game of two evenly-matched opponents. They’re similar in every aspect, so subtle differences here and there will decide the winner. Expect a tactical battle and don’t expect goals. Putting your bets on extra time or penalites might not be such a bad idea.