Who will pass through Spain or Russia
If there was ever a disparity between two opponents, this is it. Russia has one of the worst passing midfields in the 2018 World Cup and Spain has the best one (at least percentage wise). The Spanish team is the only one to have completed more than 2000 passes in the tournament. Although, as you might think, many of them are not actually effective and influential, but more part of their build-up play. How patient will Russia be? If Cherchesov’s men can’t survive the onslaught, they’ll have to wave good-bye after Sunday afternoon’s knockout match in Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium.
As a result of Spain’s passing prowess, we’ll probably see a very lob sided Round of 16 encounter, at least when it comes to who has possession of the ball. If you ask the Russians, that might not be such a bad thing. Whenever they try to control possession, the Russians end up making costly mistakes. Stanislav Cherchesov’s men are way better without the ball, when they can press the opposition and force it into making mistakes. As evidenced by the game against Morocco. Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique are not playing up to standard, at least not for now. Cherchesov will undoubtedly look at that game as a sample case of how to approach Sunday’s encounter.
Spain: Group B winner (5 points, 6:5 goal difference)
The Spanish are unbeaten in 23 matches (15 wins and 8 draws) since losing to Italy at Euro 2016. One of those draws was a friendly against Russia in November which ended in a 3-3 tie. Fedor Smolov and Alexei Miranchuk were Russia’s best players then and their manager could very well opt for Smolov over Dzyuba this time as well. As impressive as Dzyuba has been, he’s simply not fast enough for a counter-attacking scheme. There needs to be a footballer in the Russian squad who can accompany Golovin in potential counter-attacking situations. Smolov is too emotional, inconsistent and gets frustrated easily, but he’s faster than Dzyuba.
Russia: Group A runner-up (6 points, 8:4 goal difference)
Russia have kept just one clean sheet in 11 games during 2017/18, which was the opener against Saudi Arabia. Protecting the fortress for 90 minutes (and perhaps more) versus Spain is unrealistic. Between Diego Costa, Isco, Andres Iniesta, David Silva, Sergio Busquets and whoever joins him in midfield, La Roja has supreme skill and technique. Eventually, they’ll score. The Russians must find the perfect balance between being too passive and being overly aggressive to have a chance at turning this into a game.
Hierro’s men have given us a glimpse of what they can do. But haven’t peaked yet. Not even close. Expect to see an uptick in performance on every level. The crowd support will definitely lift the host, but at the end of the day, it’s not about motivation, it’s about how well you play the game of football.
Spain vs. Russia betting odds
