In World Cup Qualifying Group G it comes down to a showdown between Netherlands, Turkey and Norway All can still finish first, second or third.
As late as midday on Saturday, things were looking pretty clear in Qualifying Group G. Norway were in the play-off places. Norway were two points and five goals ahead of the Turks in second place in the play-offs, and both had easy home tasks at the same time.
But because the Scandinavians could not go beyond a 0-0 draw against Latvia, the Turks not only closed the gap on points, they even jumped to second place with a 6-0 win over Gibraltar – because in FIFA competitions, goal difference counts more than direct comparison.
Elftal stumble in Montenegro
A neck-and-neck race for a play-off place also pleased the third team in the group: league leaders Netherlands, who had previously been two points ahead of the Norwegians, could have booked their direct World Cup ticket with a win in Montenegro a few hours later. But then Louis van Gaal’s team squandered a 2-0 lead.
Before the last matchday, which will take place in parallel on Tuesday evening, all three nations can thus achieve both the direct qualification place one and play-off place two as well as third place, which means immediately missing out on the 2022 World Cup. The Netherlands and Norway meet directly, the Turks take on Montenegro.
Oranje need only a draw
The Netherlands will qualify directly if …
… they don’t lose their home match against Norway (a 13-0 win by Turkey is highly unlikely).
The Netherlands will have to make the play-offs if …
… they lose against Norway, but Turkey does not win against Montenegro in parallel.
The Netherlands will finish third and miss out on the World Cup if …
… they lose against Norway and Turkey wins against Montenegro in parallel.
A matter of goal difference
Turkey qualify directly if …
… they beat Montenegro and Norway wins against the Netherlands at the same time – but that is a maximum of one goal higher than the Turkish victory.
Turkey will have to make the play-offs if …
… they don’t lose, but Norway don’t win against the Netherlands.
… it loses by no more than one goal more clearly than Norway loses to the Netherlands.
… both matches end in a draw.
… it wins against Montenegro, but the Netherlands does not lose against Norway.
… it wins against Montenegro, but Norway beats the Netherlands by at least two goals.
Turkey will finish third and miss out on the World Cup if …
… they lose, but Norway at least score against the Netherlands.
… they lose by at least two goals more than Norway against the Netherlands.
… it does not get out of a draw, but Norway beats the Netherlands.
In their own hands
Norway qualify directly if …
… it wins and Turkey does not beat Montenegro.
… it wins by at least two goals more than the Turks against Montenegro.
Norway must/can go to the play-offs if …..
… it wins, but by at most one goal more than the Turks against Montenegro.
… it draws and Turkey loses to Montenegro.
… the Turks lose by more than two goals more clearly than Norway itself.
Norway finish third and miss out on the World Cup if …
… both matches end in a draw.
… Turkey wins but Norway fails to beat the Netherlands.
… at best it loses by one goal less than Turkey.