UPDATE: Francesco Bagnaia on the factory Ducati or Jorge Martin on the Pramac Ducati: Who will become the 2023 MotoGP champion on Sunday in Valencia
Once again, the Valencia Grand Prix will decide who will become MotoGP World Champion. In 2006, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2022, the world championship was decided at the Circuit Ricardo Tormo. This year, Francesco “Pecco” Bagnaia (Ducati) and Jorge Martin (Pramac-Ducati) are the protagonists
Title defender Bagnaia went into the final weekend with a 21-point lead over Martin. Unlike in the past, however, this time there are not 25 but 37 points up for grabs in Valencia.
The first points were awarded in the sprint and Martin took twelve points with the win. Bagnaia, on the other hand, finished fifth after choosing the wrong tires and thus missed his first match point to win the title.
Below are the updated scenarios of how, under the new circumstances (after the sprint), either Francesco Bagnaia will win his second MotoGP title in two years in Sunday’s Grand Prix or Jorge Martin will become MotoGP World Champion for the first time in his career
Francesco Bagnaia will be MotoGP World Champion 2023 if:
– he finishes the Grand Prix in the top 5
– he finishes P6 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not win
– he finishes P7 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not win
– he finishes P8 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not win
– he finishes P9 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not win
– he finishes P10 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not win
– he finishes P11 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not finish P1 or P2
– he finishes P12 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not finish P1 or P2
– he finishes P13 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not finish P1 or P2
– he finishes P14 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not finish P1 or P2
– he finishes P15 in the Grand Prix and Martin does not finish on the podium
– Martin does not finish on the podium in the Grand Prix
Jorge Martin will be MotoGP World Champion 2023 if:
– he wins the Grand Prix and Bagnaia does not finish in the top 5
– he finishes P2 in the Grand Prix and Bagnaia does not finish in the top 10
– he finishes P3 in the Grand Prix and Bagnaia does not finish in the top 14
In the event that Bagnaia and Martin are tied on points after the Valencia weekend, Bagnaia will be the 2023 MotoGP World Champion. He already has six Grand Prix wins this season. Martin has won four Grands Prix so far this season and can therefore no longer draw level in this respect.
However, the example of the 2006 season has shown that, despite the supposedly clear signs, the runner-up can still become the new world champion. Back then, Valentino Rossi (Yamaha) and Nicky Hayden (Honda) were the title contenders.
Rossi came to the finale in Valencia with an eight-point lead, but crashed early on and ultimately only finished P13. Hayden finished third and won the 2006 MotoGP title, replacing the “Kentucky Kid” as world champion after five consecutive world titles for “The Doctor”
