Francesco Bagnaia on the factory Ducati or Jorge Martin on the Pramac Ducati: Who will become the 2023 MotoGP champion this weekend in Valencia
Once again, the Valencia Grand Prix will decide who will become MotoGP World Champion. In 2006, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2022, the world championship was decided at the Circuit Ricardo Tormo. This year, Francesco “Pecco” Bagnaia (Ducati) and Jorge Martin (Pramac-Ducati) are the protagonists
Bagnaia is the defending champion and goes into the final weekend with a 21-point lead over Martin. Unlike in the past, however, this time there are not 25 but 37 points up for grabs in Valencia. The first twelve points will be awarded in the sprint. Therefore, Bagnaia could become world champion again on Saturday if things go perfectly for him.
However, the example of the 2006 season has shown that, despite the supposedly clear signs, the runner-up can still become the new world champion. Back then, Valentino Rossi (Yamaha) and Nicky Hayden (Honda) were the title contenders.
Rossi arrived at the finale in Valencia with an eight-point lead, but crashed early on and ultimately only finished P13. Hayden finished third and won the 2006 MotoGP title, replacing the “Kentucky Kid” as world champion after four consecutive world titles for “The Doctor”.
Here are the current scenarios for either Francesco Bagnaia winning his second MotoGP title in two years or Jorge Martin becoming MotoGP World Champion for the first time in his career this weekend in Valencia
Francesco Bagnaia becomes MotoGP World Champion in 2023 if:
– he wins the sprint and Martin does not finish P2
– he finishes P2 in the sprint and Martin does not finish in the top 4
– he finishes P3 in the sprint and Martin does not finish in the top 6
– he finishes P4 in the sprint and Martin does not finish in the top 7
– he finishes P5 in the sprint and Martin does not finish in the top 8
– he finishes P6 in the sprint and Martin does not finish in the points (top 9)
– he loses 21 or fewer points to Martin in the Sprint and Grand Prix combined
Jorge Martin becomes MotoGP World Champion 2023 if:
– he gains 22 or more points on Bagnaia in the Sprint and Grand Prix combined
In the sprint on Saturday, only championship leader Francesco Bagnaia has the chance to become world champion early. If Jorge Martin, currently second in the standings, manages to postpone the world championship decision from Saturday to Sunday, the concrete world championship scenarios (necessary placings) for the Grand Prix will only then emerge, depending on the sprint result.
In the event that Bagnaia and Martin are tied on points after the Valencia weekend, Bagnaia will be the 2023 MotoGP World Champion. He already has six Grand Prix victories this season. Martin has won four Grands Prix so far this season and can therefore no longer draw level in this respect
