Ex-MotoGP rider Marco Melandri analyzes this year’s World Cup battle and looks ahead to 2025: How will Martin perform at Aprilia and Marquez at Ducati?
With the MotoGP title decision falling in the season finale in the past two years, the last race weekend in Barcelona will also decide in 2024 who will be world champion: the reigning champion Francesco Bagnaia or the current world championship leader Jorge Martin.
The latter goes into the grand finale with a 24-point lead, so he would have to make a big mistake for Bagnaia to turn it around. While the latter is chasing his third title, it would be Martin’s first in MotoGP.
He would also be the first satellite rider to win the world championship in the modern MotoGP era since 2002.
Speaking to GPOne.com, former MotoGP rider Marco Melandri admitted: “I’ve always felt that the official bike should win. This year I’ll probably be proved wrong and as a rider I’m happy.”
“Those who race do it to get to the top, and it’s great that even those who don’t have a factory bike have a chance. A lot of the credit goes to Gigi Dall’Igna, because he’s the one who organizes everything and obviously places a lot of emphasis on sportsmanship,” says Melandri.
In fact, Martin also rides the current factory Ducati and has received the same updates as the factory team riders during the season. This led him to lead the overall standings for most of the year, thanks in part to a number of mistakes by Bagnaias.
Too many mistakes on Bagnaias side
“The World Championship was good, very special. Pecco gave Martin some nice gifts by crashing seven times in the race,“ Melandri analyzes. Add to that the crash in Aragon after a collision with Alex Marquez.
”That’s a bit too much. But the two of them have really raised the bar. In my opinion, Marc Marquez is the only one who is at their level, considering that his bike is quite a way off the GP24.”
“Jorge also showed in Malaysia that he has what it takes, because he could have held back by staying behind Bagnaia and waiting for the end of the race. Instead, he attacked on the first few laps to make it clear to him that he really wants the title,” Melandri noted after Sepang.
But he knows: “The championship is only won when it’s won. Even if Martin is so close, there is still a sprint and a Grand Prix to go.”
If Martin doesn’t make it, Melandri believes that it will be difficult for him to get so close to the title again so quickly after switching to Aprilia. “Not next year,“ he says when asked whether Martin will be able to fight for the title in 2025.
”It’s difficult to evaluate the RS-GP now because the riders will undoubtedly be unmotivated and the major changes at the technical level have at least slowed down the work a bit. I honestly don’t think they can close such a big gap to Ducati, not in one season.”
“The last time was in Barcelona, but the Desmosedici was close. By contrast, when they struggle, they struggle to get into the top ten. Of course, Jorge is not Espargaró and Vinales is not either, but I don’t expect him to be fighting at the front,” said Melandri.
“He himself admitted before Sepang that these will be the most important weeks of his career. He is aware that an opportunity like this won’t come around again anytime soon.”
Marquez 2025 Ducati’s new number 1?
Especially since the competition in the Ducati camp is likely to become even stronger when Marc Marquez moves up from Gresini to the factory team – and thus receives current factory material. Melandri is certain: “Marquez will be the man to beat.”
“He’s a bad dog. When he has to be there, he is there. He makes no mistakes and even when things go badly, he makes up for it. He crashes more than the others, but he does it when he can afford it, so in training. In the race, it happened to him often because the GP23 is very far from the GP24.”
“But with last year’s bike, no one was able to beat him, and in my opinion that’s an important indicator,” emphasizes Melandri.
Regarding the Marquez/Bagnaia constellation at Ducati, he says: “We’ll have to wait and see how this championship turns out. If Martin beats him, it could be a motivation for Pecco. Likewise, it could give him the realization that he is beatable. However, I think Marc will reap the rewards.”