Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann will also have to do without Joshua Kimmich (COVID-19) for the top match in Dortmund. But how serious is the absence? The chances of a Dortmund victory certainly increase when looking at the statistics.
“The midfield doesn’t work without Kimmich at the moment. He is the emotional leader,” said “Sky” pundit Lothar Matthäus on Thursday at a press event of the TV channel. But can this statement be substantiated before the match in Dortmund on Saturday? A fortnight ago, Bayern surprisingly lost 1:2 in Augsburg when Kimmich was in quarantine.
A look at the statistics at least gives a clue. Since winning the Champions League in the summer of 2020, FC Bayern have played 71 competitive games. Kimmich missed 14 of them (meniscus surgery, quarantine, COVID-19)
Bayern’s winning percentage drops without Kimmich
In the 57 games with Kimmich, the German champions show a win rate of 78.9 per cent. In contrast, the rate in the games without the international actually drops and is “only” 64.3 per cent. The goal rate is also striking: With Kimmich, Bayern score an average of 3.2 times per game (with 18.8 shots on goal per game), while without him they score “only” 2.2 times (14.6 shots on goal per game). Seen in this light, BVB’s chances actually increase slightly.
In addition to Kimmich, his midfield partner Leon Goretzka is also injured at Bayern (hip problems). “It would be a huge advantage for Dortmund if Goretzka wasn’t at full strength,” Matthäus said: “If Kimmich and Goretzka are out, I doubt Bayern will win.” Games would be decided in the centre of midfield, he said. “That’s where the music plays. “
