Liverpool v Manchester City – a look ahead to the Premier League’s top match from a statistical perspective.
Defense wins championships, they say. According to this, Arsenal FC are currently on course for the championship from the top trio in England, as the third-placed team in the table has conceded 23 goals, two fewer than leaders Liverpool and two fewer than Manchester City, who have also scored the fewest goals (62), behind the Reds (64) and even fewer than the Gunners (68).
But that’s just in passing. This is about facts that you can’t read from the table, but which can give you an indication of what to expect at Anfield on Sunday. For example, you shouldn’t expect the champions to run offside often despite the hosts’ notoriously shallow backline. The 28 times in which the Sky Blues’ attacks were whistled back because of this are doubly remarkable. Firstly, because coach Pep Guardiola’s side are known to have had the ball most of the time in their 27 games, and secondly because they are the league’s top team. Unsurprisingly, this speaks for extremely good timing in the passing game, but also for a high level of intelligence
“Daredevil” Klopp meets timid Guardiola
However, Liverpool’s record in the “offside” discipline is also remarkable, in that although they had the assist flags raised 61 times, more than twice as often, they still took more shots on goal than City, 523:494. And this discrepancy would have been even greater if chances had been created instead of offside situations. Overall, the whole thing reflects the greater willingness of Jürgen Klopp’s team to take risks, and thus also the nature of the coaches. Here “go-getter” Klopp, there the timid Guardiola. That’s not a judgment on him, that’s how he describes himself.
It follows from this: Control over everything. It should come as no surprise to anyone that Manchester City’s passing rate is outstanding. But the fact that 90.3 percent is not just the best in England, but in Europe’s top five leagues, deserves attention. Real Madrid (90.1%), for example, in second place in La Liga, have significantly fewer strong opponents than City in the Premier League.
Liverpool, meanwhile, and that will also be the case in the top match, are defined by routes into the box. Fast, direct. They have already penetrated the opposition penalty area 1010 times (37.4 times per game). No other team has managed to do this so often and no other team has broken the 1,000 mark, not even Man City, whose “only” 33.9 times per game are certainly due in part to the fact that the quintuple winners of the previous season do not take the greatest risks, but only look for the way into the penalty area when it is “safe” to stay on the ball. If that doesn’t work, they tend to break off and play “around the circle” again until the gap opens up. Unless you lose patience and look for goal machine Erling Haaland too early
Liverpool hit the aluminum more often
More guts in finishing on the Liverpool side can also be seen in 19 aluminum goals. That is by far the highest figure in England’s top flight. They are followed by Everton FC and Tottenham Hotspur with 14 hits on the post or crossbar. Man City, on the other hand, only scored eight, which also fits in with the attacking behavior described above.
And what about the quality of the chances, the xG value? This aspect is particularly exciting, as Liverpool have the league’s top value at home (37.5), while ManCity have it away from home (29.1). And this is exactly the constellation that will play out on Sunday. The Reds have scored 37 times at Anfield, City 28 times away from home. The Citizens have even more opportunities there than at the Etihad Stadium. A warning that Liverpool no longer really need.
But one final fact promises even more excitement: Liverpool have now scored at least 64 goals after 27 games for the sixth time. In three of the five seasons already completed, Liverpool were crowned champions (1983, 1988 and 2020). In the other two seasons, 2014 and 2022, Manchester City lifted the championship trophy in the end. At least not: Arsenal …
