The ADAC GT Masters finale is scheduled for next weekend – Raffaele Marciello could be crowned champion as early as Saturday
Surely there have been more dramatic decisions in the ADAC GT Masters than in 2022, but the most exciting question is not so much if, but when Raffaele Marciello will take the title. The Landgraf Mercedes driver travels to the Hockenheimring with a 42-point lead over Christian Engelhart and Ayhancan Güven in the Joos Porsche. 56 points are still up for grabs.
The calculation would be simple: 14 points are less than there are for third place and more than there are for fourth. So third place is good enough? Not so fast, because one factor complicates the calculation: qualifying points. Because it depends on the qualifying result which place is enough for Marciello to win the title.
Points are awarded in qualifying according to the scheme 3 – 2 – 1. In addition, there are only 53 points to be awarded after Saturday’s qualifying. So the calculation changes – depending on how qualifying turns out. The P3 scenario will only hold if qualifying goes favourably for Joos. Otherwise it will be even easier for Marciello and his teammate Daniel Juncadella.
Which place will make Marciello the champion
Both teams currently have one win each on their books. Of course, for Marciello’s “worst case” calculation, we have to assume that Joos wins both races.
If Joos takes three more points:
39 points lead with 53 points to be awarded: 3rd place
If Joos gets two points more:
40 points ahead with 53 points to be awarded: 3rd place
If Joos scores one more point:
41 points ahead with 53 points to be awarded: 4th place
If both teams fail to pick up any qualifying points:
42 points ahead with 53 points to be awarded: 4th place
If Landgraf take one more point:
43 point lead with 53 points to be awarded: 5th place
If Landgraf scores two points more:
44 points ahead with 53 points to be awarded: 6th place
If Landgraf gets three points more:
45 points ahead with 53 points to be awarded: 7th place
Take the title with a zero
If Engelhart/Güven do not win the first race, the title decision will of course shift much more in Marciello’s favour. If Joos finishes second in the first race, a sixth to twelfth place would be enough for Marciello. He is champion if the lead after the race is at least 29 points.
This means that Marciello could also become champion with a zero lap. Depending on the outcome of qualifying, that would be the case if Joos takes a maximum of third to sixth place in the race. In other words, if the “Mamba” were to go for pole on Saturday and Joos were to finish fourth at best in qualifying, Marciello would already be champion if Joos did not finish in the top two, regardless of his own position.
In theory, Jules Gounon and Fabian Schiller (53 points behind) and Jack Aitken and Albert Costa (54 points behind) could still win the title. However, the chance is so theoretical that the calculator would only make sense if there was still a chance of winning the title after the second qualifying session.
