Chelsea FC are bottom of the Premier League table. But one statistic gives hope – in combination with the imminent comeback of Christopher Nkunku
Tenth place after twelve matchdays – Chelsea bosses have rarely put up with a record like this in the past. Coach Mauricio Pochettino, however, still seems to be firmly in the traditional ejector seat. This has to do with the horrendously expensive but very young squad, which requires patience; with the remarkable record against the top teams; and perhaps also with a statistic that turns the table on its head for the Blues.
If the team with the better xGoals value had won every game of the season so far, rather than the team with the more goals scored, the Premier League leaders would seriously be Chelsea. Only against FC Brentford (0:2) did the Londoners lose on xGoals (2.0 to 2.2), in all other eleven games they were always better than their opponents in this respect, including the recent 4:4 against Manchester City (3.0 to 2.9). The most glaring discrepancy was against Nottingham: Despite an xGoals ratio of 2.3 to 0.8, the final score was 0:1 (all xGoals values from “Opta”).
This means: Under Pochettino, the Blues repeatedly get into good finishing situations, but exploit these chances less well than the statistics would suggest. Instead of 26 goals, which the team should have according to xGoals – only Liverpool have more (27) – there are actually only 21
Everton should also be much better off in the table
In the xGoals table, behind Chelsea are ManCity (2nd place; 1st place in the “real” table), Liverpool (3/2), Newcastle (4/7), Brighton (5/8), Arsenal (6/3) and, curiously, Everton (7/14). So Newcastle and Arsenal are among the overperformers, while Everton in particular are lagging far behind the real ranking, just like Chelsea – and that’s not even taking into account the ten-point deduction for financial breaches.
It is not a new insight, but one that is borne out by these figures: Chelsea have so far lacked an enforcer, which Nicolas Jackson only began to become in his last two appearances. All the more important for Pochettino that Christopher Nkunku’s debut is now in the offing. The reigning Bundesliga top scorer had been out of action for months due to knee surgery – and from the outset had been earmarked as the man to turn the chances he created into goals.
