Charles Leclerc believes he will win the start, and according to Pirelli, Oscar Piastri is unlikely to be a threat to him with an undercut
Are all good things come in threes? Charles Leclerc starts from pole position for the third time after 2021 and 2022 at his home Grand Prix in Monaco. In 2021, the drive shaft failed after the crash in Q3 before the race had even started; and in 2022, the Monegasque was in a commanding lead until the Ferrari strategists made a mistake in a rainy Grand Prix
It’s clear that if Leclerc is still leading shortly after 16:00 after Sainte Devote and the weather forecast holds, then he can probably only lose the overdue victory on home soil due to pit strategy, a safety car or a lack of concentration. And he himself considers it unlikely that he will drop back at the start.
“I haven’t often seen anyone lose places before the first corner because the distance is so short,” says the Ferrari driver confidently. “But never say never! Let’s concentrate on the start. If Carlos also gets away well and we are first and second, we can control the race as a team. That would be the perfect scenario.”
It is conceivable that Ferrari could then reach into their bag of tricks, drop Sainz back a little to build up a lead and let Leclerc drive a shorter first stint and Sainz a longer one. But of course that depends on what the others do and where the gaps open up in the field. Many strategic variants are conceivable within the one-stop window.
How will Piastri get past Leclerc?
Ferrari’s only opponent at the start will probably be Oscar Piastri. The McLaren driver is on the front row. But even if he gets close to the same height by Sainte Devote, he will have to slip past in the left-hand bend. It gets pretty tight at the end of the start and finish straight, and you can’t be as reckless as on many other circuits.
In any case, Piastri has not planned any hara-kiri variants for the start: “The race is not only won or lost in the first corner,” he says. “You can also apply pressure with the right strategy and overtake that way. It wouldn’t be the end of the race not to lead at the start. But of course, it would make life a little easier for us.”
In the past, Monaco was often not an undercut race, but an overcut race. In other words, the late pit stop could beat the earlier one. “The undercut doesn’t help much here,” says Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra. “The hard tire needs half a lap to get up to temperature. Normally, you stay in front if you change one lap later.”
In all likelihood, most of the top drivers will be running a medium-hard strategy. For those who start on medium, Pirelli anticipates a pit stop window of lap 25 to lap 35. Berra therefore contradicts Piastri when he says: “There is nothing you can invent here. The track position decides. In terms of strategy, Monaco is pretty unique. “
Stella: Monaco doesn’t have to be a procession
McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella still sees opportunities: “Monaco is always seen as a procession, but there are often safety cars and red flags. And the tires are delicate. Last year there were phases where some had graining. That’s why you might not be able to overtake straight away. But you can make up time around the pit stop window or build up a lead. “
Leclerc certainly seems optimistic, the “Monaco curse” does not seem to be gnawing at him: “If we get a good start, I have little doubt that I can defend the lead through the first corner. And our starts have actually been quite good recently. That’s why I’m not too worried.”
And yet: 2021 and 2022 are not forgotten. Leclerc tries not to let the unpleasant memories unsettle him and answers the question of whether he will do anything differently this time than back then: “No, not at all. We’ve done the job on Saturday. Now we can’t do anything else but concentrate on Sunday anyway.”
“It’s true, we’ve made mistakes here in the past. But those were completely different situations. I think we’ve become much stronger as a team since then,” explained the 26-year-old. “We will approach this race like any other. And I am confident that we will do a good job.”
“In Monaco, you have all the pressure in qualifying. You’re no more relaxed in the race … Although, actually, you are: you have to get the start right, then focus on the pit stop, because the laps before and after the stop are very important. I no longer think about what used to happen. And I’m sure we’ll manage that well. “
Leclerc: Does he fancy his chances of winning the World Championship?
If Leclerc wins the race and Verstappen remains stuck in sixth place on the grid, the gap in the championship would shrink from the current 48 points to 31. A gap that can be made up with up to 448 points per driver still up for grabs in the 16 remaining Grands Prix.
“The championship is still long,” says Leclerc, taking the pressure out of the situation: “One race won’t change everything. We have to stay calm. It’s still too early to think about the championship. Red Bull still has the best car. But it’s true that they don’t have the best car on such a special track. But that doesn’t mean it will stay that way for the next races. “
