The starting position could hardly be better for a neutral football fan. The second-placed team in the table receives the first-placed team for the evening match on Saturday. Only one point separates the two teams before this duel.
How many spectators are allowed? Maximum 15,000.
Who will be in charge of the match? Felix Zwayer. It is his 152nd Bundesliga match. His assistants: Marco Achmüller, Mike Pickel. And the VAR: Tobias Welz.
Who is out? So far Joshua Kimmich (COVID-19, quarantine), Marcel Sabitzer (calf injury), Josip Stanisic (muscle bundle tear) and Bouna Sarr (adductor injury) are certain to be out. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting could still take time off. There is hope for Leon Goretzka, he should be included.
What could Bayern’s starting eleven look like? Neuer – Süle, Upamecano, Hernandez – Goretzka, Tolisso – Coman, Müller, Sané, Davies – Lewandowski
What matters? On the one hand, as coach Julian Nagelsmann demanded at the press conference, his team must be extremely careful in possession to avoid careless ball losses. Dortmund’s game with the always lurking Erling Haaland is extremely dangerous in these switching actions. And on the other hand, it is important for the Munich team to get Robert Lewandowski into promising positions more often than in recent weeks.
Regardless of this, the record champions must close the gap left by Kimmich. Should Goretzka not make it, that would probably be the biggest challenge on Bayern’s side. A lucky charm for these duels is Kingsley Coman. The Frenchman has won each of his seven games with Dortmund – no other player has faced BVB so often in Bundesliga history and is still without a point loss.
What does the data say in a direct comparison? Bayern has the best tackling rate in the league (54.1%), Dortmund the third best (52.5%). Bayern has the best passing rate in the league (85.6%), Dortmund the second best (84.0%). Dortmund has the best chance conversion rate in the league (39.8%), Bayern the third best (34.4%). Bayern have the highest possession in the league (65%), Dortmund the second highest (60%).
What do the past statistics tell us? Bayern have not lost any of the past 15 Bundesliga games in which the top team met the second team and they themselves were involved (eleven wins, four draws). BVB lost eight of the last nine league games against FCB (one win), conceding 32 goals, an average of 3.6 per game. BVB has lost all five of its most recent encounters with Bayern – Dortmund is currently on such a losing streak against no other club. In fact, only Bremen (six games from 1970 to 1977) and Hamburg (seven games from 1982 to 1985) had longer losing streaks. But with a win, Dortmund could be back at the top of the table for the first time since Matchday 2 in 2019/20.
