After three match days, everything is still open in the Champions League table – but there are initial trends. How many points do you need for the top 8, how many for the top 24?
FC Bayern has lost sight of its initial Champions League goal for the time being. After the 4-1 defeat at FC Barcelona on Wednesday evening, the German record champions are only in 23rd place in the new 36-team table after three match days – even behind Dinamo Zagreb, which was still losing 9-2 in Munich in the opening game. The top 8, which Bayern is still targeting, are a long way off for now.
Only the top eight teams qualify directly for the last sixteen, while the teams in ninth to 24th place determine the other eight places in the knockout phase in preliminary knockout play-offs. How many points are needed to avoid this detour? And how many to qualify for the knockout phase at all?
According to Opta, which simulated the league phase 50,000 times before the start, 17 points are always enough to finish in the top eight, 16 points 98 percent of the time. And 73 percent of the clubs that crossed the finish line with 15 points still made it to the round of 16 in the model calculations. For the top 24, eleven points were enough to reach 100 percent, ten to reach 99 percent and nine to reach 69 percent.
Bayern must win almost everything – VfB can hope to advance
For Bayern, this means that in the five remaining group-stage matches against Benfica (H, November 6), Paris Saint-Germain (H, November 26), Shakhtar Donetsk (A, December 10), Feyenoord Rotterdam (A, January 22) and Slovan Bratislava (home, January 29) they need about 13 points, so at least four wins to finish in the top 8, and about seven points for the top 24. At least: A “real” away game is only scheduled in Rotterdam, against Donetsk it’s at Schalke.
Despite the 5-2 defeat at Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund is still in a better position with six points, but according to the simulations, it still needs about ten (top 8) or four points (top 24 ), Bayer 04 Leverkusen only need nine (top 8) or three (top 24), and VfB Stuttgart only need twelve (top 8) or six (top 24) after their 1-0 victory at Juventus. Because the Swabians still have to play against Red Star Belgrade, MOL Viktoria Plzen and Young Boys Bern, three of the six teams that have not yet won any points, the latter does not seem unrealistic.
On the other hand, RB Leipzig, who are also yet to score a goal (this time 0-1 against Liverpool), will have to work hard for a result, while Aston Villa and the Reds, the only two clubs with a perfect record, have almost secured their places in the next round.