Brazil vs Mexico round of 16 FIFA World Cup 2018

When Brazil and Mexico take the pitch in Samara’s Cosmos Arena on Monday afternoon at 16:00, they will renew a rivalry which has lasted for centuries. The two have met many times in various international competitions and usually, it’s the Brazilians who come out on top.

Brazil: Group E winner (7 points, 5:1 goal difference)

Brazil remains the No.1 favorite to win the 2018 World Cup, especially now that Germany’s gone. The Green Canaries started off slowly against Switzerland and have been gradually increasing the pressure on the gas pedal. Other than Danilo Silva, who was replaced by Fagner after game one, the starting lineup has remained unchanged throughout the group stage, so we shouldn’t expect to see any changes for the game against Mexico either.

Brazil projected starting lineup:

Alisson Becker, Fagner, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Marcelo, Casemiro, Paulinho, Willian, Philippe Coutinho, Neymar, Gabriel Jesus.

Marcelo is the only slight doubt after exiting the match versus Serbia with was later discovered to be a back injury (back spasms) supposedly related to the left back’s hotel mattress.

“The injury may be related to the hotel mattress.”

“The important thing is there is no injury, they were muscle spasms. Once he feels good to train, he will return and immediately be ready to play, there is no recovery period.” – Brazilian team doctor Rodrigo Lasmar

Mexico: Group F runner-up (6 points, 3:4 goal difference)

If Brazil is gradually pushing the gas pedal, Mexico is doing the opposite by pushing the breaks. After an inspiring first game performance against Germany, El Tri weren’t nearly as active and energetic in game two versus South Korea and then almost crashed out of the competition after losing 3-0 to Sweden. Luckily for them, Germany failed, but they still lost the first place in the group. Consequently, Juan Carlos Osorio’s men not only ended up in the much tougher upper half of the draw, but also have to face Brazil in the Round of 16. Judging by how they fared in the past at this stage, this might be the end of their journey. Why? Because the Mexicans have been knocked out in the Round of 16 for six straight World Cups.

For them, it’s not about who’s in the lineup. It’s about how the players in that lineup feel on game day. The Mexico we saw against Germany looked like a team ready to reach the semi-finals. The Mexico we saw against Sweden didn’t deserve to get past the group stage. Inconsistency is a problem this team has had for years and it doesn’t seem to go away. It’s not simple to control that boiling Latin American blood and constantly channel it in the right direction.

Mexico projected starting lineup:

Guillermo Ochoa, Edson Alvarez, Carlos Salcedo, Rafael Marquez, Jesus Gallardo, Andres Guardado, Hector Herrera, Miguel Layun, Carlos Vela, Hirving Lozano, Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez.

Starting center back Hector Moreno is suspended.

Brazil vs. Mexico prediction

Hector Moreno’s absence is a big blow for Mexico. He’s their best center back and forms a great partnership with Carlos Salcedo. Regardless of whether it’s Rafa Marquez or somebody else replacing him, neither player is up to Moreno’s standard. That’s a place in Mexico’s formation Brazil will try to poke early and often. Generally speaking, El Tri have a dangerous counter-attacking unit. The question is whether the midfielders will be capable of getting the ball to their three forwards. Sweden dominated that department and it was a big reason why they won. Brazil will probably do the same.

Brazil vs. Mexico betting odds