Red Bull is making a generational change with Liam Lawson: Is the New Zealander the right choice or would Yuki Tsunoda have deserved the cockpit more?
Liam Lawson will be Max Verstappen’s new teammate from the 2025 Formula 1 season onwards – and that after only eleven races in his previous Formula 1 career. The decision to put the young New Zealander in the Red Bull cockpit instead of Sergio Perez is controversial. After all, Yuki Tsunoda, who has four full seasons of experience, was also available as an alternative.
At first glance, Tsunoda seems to have been the better choice. In the eleven race weekends they shared together as teammates with the Racing Bulls in 2023 and 2024, he had Lawson under control. The points tally (8-6) and, above all, qualifying (10-1) clearly favor the Japanese driver. However, Lawson was able to narrowly win the duel in the races (6-5).
However, thanks to data from our technology partner PACETEQ, we are able to gain deeper insights. Comparing the best qualifying times of the two drivers, Tsunoda was on average 0.240 seconds faster, which explains the clear qualifying record. In terms of race pace, however, the advantage was smaller: Tsunoda was on average 0.11 seconds faster per lap. Looking at the 2024 season alone, this gap in race trim even shrinks to just 0.02 seconds per lap.
So, objectively speaking, the numbers favor Tsunoda. But how meaningful is this data? Many experts see Lawson’s performance as a sign of huge potential despite his limited experience. Tsunoda, on the other hand, has had four years to prove his talent.
Teammates “destroyed”: Is Tsunoda biting off more than he can chew?
In recent weeks, Tsunoda has confidently put himself forward as Verstappen’s teammate. After a test in Abu Dhabi, he stated that the Red Bull suits his driving style very well. In addition, the 24-year-old has repeatedly hinted that he is claiming the Red Bull seat as his own. In Las Vegas, he said: “I always say that I definitely deserve this seat. Whenever they [at Red Bull] send their drivers to me to beat me, I just destroy them. So I will continue to do that.”
However, the data only partially supports Tsunoda’s optimism. It is debatable whether an average lead of 0.24 seconds in qualifying or 0.11 seconds per lap in race pace can be considered “destruction”. By way of comparison, Max Verstappen had outpaced Sergio Perez by an average of 0.56 seconds in qualifying and around four-tenths of a second per lap in the race during their four years together at Red Bull.
The comparison with Daniel Ricciardo also does not fall into the destruction category. In 25 race weekends together, the Japanese driver was on average 0.11 seconds ahead in qualifying. In terms of race pace, the lead was only 0.02 seconds per lap. However, Tsunoda clearly won the points duel with 37:18.
This was mainly due to his better qualifying results, which often gave him a better starting position in the race. Ricciardo also suffered from his weakness at the start: with 22 lost places on the first lap, he was the second-worst starter in Formula 1 in 2024 – only Lando Norris was worse with 27 lost places.
The duels against Nyck de Vries and Pierre Gasly
Looking at Tsunoda’s performance against other teammates, the picture is mixed. In the first ten races of the 2023 season, Nyck de Vries was Tsunoda’s teammate before he was replaced by Ricciardo due to poor results.
Tsunoda had an advantage of 0.26 seconds per lap in qualifying against de Vries, and was even 0.31 seconds ahead in race pace. Such a result could indeed be considered “destruction” – although Verstappen’s dominance over Perez is even greater.
The duel with Pierre Gasly, on the other hand, was clearly to Tsunoda’s disadvantage. In their joint 2021 and 2022 seasons, Gasly was on average 0.43 seconds faster in qualifying. In the race, his lead shrank to an average of two-tenths per lap. In 2022, with more Formula 1 experience, Tsunoda’s gap in race pace narrowed to just 0.09 seconds. Nevertheless, the team duel went to Gasly.
Conclusion: Is Red Bull making the right decision?
Looking at the data in its entirety, Pierre Gasly – now at Alpine – has been the best driver on the Racing Bulls team, then known as AlphaTauri, since 2021. Yuki Tsunoda was the second-fastest, but his relatively small lead over Lawson suggests that the New Zealander has greater potential for development.
A look at the historical data shows that drivers like Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc or even Yuki Tsunoda were able to improve by up to three-tenths per lap in their first three years. Further progress in the following years is also possible. The deciding factor will be whether Lawson’s driving style suits the Red Bull, which has recently been difficult to predict. If he does not meet expectations, Red Bull could react during the season as it has done in the past.
